The last 2 months have been the most frustrating time for most traders and especially the technical analysts coming in the blue channel......Why? and that too when the market has been moving ahead giving positive absolute returns ??? I have seen many analysts asking to sell off everything at the start of this month only to come out 3 days after and asking to go long. In the process they have confused many people and no one could actually make money but these analysts have come out declaring that their targets were hit.......
Well, one thing that I have learned in my small career is that "Never challenge the Markets"....As one say that "Its dangerous to catch a falling knife"; similarly "its equally risky to stop a shooting rocket"......One will get killed in both cases.....
What I feel is that analysts tried to prove their supremacy and kept on finding resistance levels ignoring the fact the FII's were constantly on buying mode. The net buying value since 1st Jan 2009 is 4935 crores of rupees.
http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/market_summ/categorywise_turnover.asp
One should understand that their is something more than technical analysis......
I am sure that today, internet being so cheaply accessible, probably all of us have the priviledge to check basic tech indicators.....And probably this is the main root cause of the problem....Every Tom, Dick and Harry has become a technical analyst by plotting MACD, Stochastics, RSI, Moving Averages, etc.....How many times do we hear the word that RSI is above 50 or below 30.......Index is facing resistance at 200DMA, 50 weekly EMA, etc, etc.......More than that I feel surprised that even the so called big analysts having 15 yrs of experience utter these non-sense (I call all mathematical indicators a big tool to fool others).....Why? Those who are interested to know that might contact me.....We are going to start our own technical classes in Kolkata very soon.........
Market analysis is not about indicator trading.....Technical anlaysis is not only drawing trendlines and relying upon mathematical indicators.....Its something much more than that; beyond what all can think......Its not "within the box" defined parameters....Its all that you and me cannot foresee......Remember the 95-5 thumb rule.....Its says that 5% (likes of Warren Buffett, et all) make 95% wealth and 95% (that is you and me) make only 5% wealth.....That is the difference and that is what we are going to teach in our seminars cause I understand and believe that all know what others know and one has to learn what others cannot think......
There was a phrase which I once came upon......A car security agency putting an advertisement "Hire a thief to catch a thief".....Now why? The reason is a thief will understand another thief's psychology and should be able to devise an alternate method to trap him.....The same goes here.....One should be able to understand what others like him might think and his job should be to devise a strategy unlike others. Thats the game of stock market......Its a game....Its a 20-20 match......
Ending with a quote from Jesse Livermore (one of the world's biggest stock/commodity trader who made 100 million dollars on the dreadful night of Oct 1929 and later commited suicide being bankrupt 5 yrs later.The lines taken from the book called 'Reminiscences of The Stock Operator'
Quote
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Unquote
Well, one thing that I have learned in my small career is that "Never challenge the Markets"....As one say that "Its dangerous to catch a falling knife"; similarly "its equally risky to stop a shooting rocket"......One will get killed in both cases.....
What I feel is that analysts tried to prove their supremacy and kept on finding resistance levels ignoring the fact the FII's were constantly on buying mode. The net buying value since 1st Jan 2009 is 4935 crores of rupees.
http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/market_summ/categorywise_turnover.asp
One should understand that their is something more than technical analysis......
I am sure that today, internet being so cheaply accessible, probably all of us have the priviledge to check basic tech indicators.....And probably this is the main root cause of the problem....Every Tom, Dick and Harry has become a technical analyst by plotting MACD, Stochastics, RSI, Moving Averages, etc.....How many times do we hear the word that RSI is above 50 or below 30.......Index is facing resistance at 200DMA, 50 weekly EMA, etc, etc.......More than that I feel surprised that even the so called big analysts having 15 yrs of experience utter these non-sense (I call all mathematical indicators a big tool to fool others).....Why? Those who are interested to know that might contact me.....We are going to start our own technical classes in Kolkata very soon.........
Market analysis is not about indicator trading.....Technical anlaysis is not only drawing trendlines and relying upon mathematical indicators.....Its something much more than that; beyond what all can think......Its not "within the box" defined parameters....Its all that you and me cannot foresee......Remember the 95-5 thumb rule.....Its says that 5% (likes of Warren Buffett, et all) make 95% wealth and 95% (that is you and me) make only 5% wealth.....That is the difference and that is what we are going to teach in our seminars cause I understand and believe that all know what others know and one has to learn what others cannot think......
There was a phrase which I once came upon......A car security agency putting an advertisement "Hire a thief to catch a thief".....Now why? The reason is a thief will understand another thief's psychology and should be able to devise an alternate method to trap him.....The same goes here.....One should be able to understand what others like him might think and his job should be to devise a strategy unlike others. Thats the game of stock market......Its a game....Its a 20-20 match......
Ending with a quote from Jesse Livermore (one of the world's biggest stock/commodity trader who made 100 million dollars on the dreadful night of Oct 1929 and later commited suicide being bankrupt 5 yrs later.The lines taken from the book called 'Reminiscences of The Stock Operator'
Quote
"The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor."
Unquote
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