- NF had completed a perfect bearish Wolfe Wave (see chart point 1-2-3-4-5 and its diagonal depicted by brown dotted line) on Friday at 2805. (I should admit that I could not see this wave earlier. Otherwise, I would have given a short trade at 3150 itself. Its my mistake but I am trying to learn these waves).
http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/Nifty%20Analysis/NF-WolfeWave.png
- Now, this wave though has completed, should/might continue to 2699 and release all its energy there. It will then be like a water wave hitting the shores but moving on for sometime with the residual energy/momentum of mass. Or it can bounce from the 2805 zone also. IF it hits 2699, then NF releases the bearish energy created by 2 distinct waves and will become completely devoid of its own strength. Hence, it can bounce tremendously from there and is almost certain to reach 3300 levels.
- BUT, if it bounces from the present levels, THEN, it will be a forced bounce, where NF retains much of its bearish strength and any such bounce (even if a strong one, maybe 2950 or 3035 or 3150) will see strong overhead supply and will fall back to lower levels (2500 -2550 levels), if not more. The worst possible scenario will be 1000 on Nifty (one cannot even imagine at this point, but that is the fact).
- However, Nifty can take different course during the progress of these waves because during its course (upward or downward), 'n' number of new waves will get generated and and a combined rippling effect will be observed then. Always, remember, however strong one wave maybe, it can always be overcome with the counter effect of multiple waves.
P.S: These wave analysis are not simple to comprehend. Please revert back with queries to avoid confusion. Always remember that, your queries/comments will help me to diagnose the situation in a better way and remove any biased view that I might have.
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