Sunday, January 11, 2009

The conflicting waves on Daily NF charts

Nifty has broken the 2900 inclining support line that we were talking of. This apparently makes Nifty bearish, and especially so since it has broken the support line of a converging triangle. Now, I was going through the daily NF charts and it suggested some intersting wave charts (Wolfe wave and my own wave analysis). Today, though I won't be showing any charts as I cannot freely publish them on the internet. But surely will show them from time to time while reviewing. One can, however, look back to the previous chart posted and see the major inclining support line (blue) for reference. The observations made on the daily charts today are as follows:
  • NF had completed a perfect bearish Wolfe Wave (see chart point 1-2-3-4-5 and its diagonal depicted by brown dotted line) on Friday at 2805. (I should admit that I could not see this wave earlier. Otherwise, I would have given a short trade at 3150 itself. Its my mistake but I am trying to learn these waves).

http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/Nifty%20Analysis/NF-WolfeWave.png

  • Now, this wave though has completed, should/might continue to 2699 and release all its energy there. It will then be like a water wave hitting the shores but moving on for sometime with the residual energy/momentum of mass. Or it can bounce from the 2805 zone also. IF it hits 2699, then NF releases the bearish energy created by 2 distinct waves and will become completely devoid of its own strength. Hence, it can bounce tremendously from there and is almost certain to reach 3300 levels.

  • BUT, if it bounces from the present levels, THEN, it will be a forced bounce, where NF retains much of its bearish strength and any such bounce (even if a strong one, maybe 2950 or 3035 or 3150) will see strong overhead supply and will fall back to lower levels (2500 -2550 levels), if not more. The worst possible scenario will be 1000 on Nifty (one cannot even imagine at this point, but that is the fact).

  • However, Nifty can take different course during the progress of these waves because during its course (upward or downward), 'n' number of new waves will get generated and and a combined rippling effect will be observed then. Always, remember, however strong one wave maybe, it can always be overcome with the counter effect of multiple waves.

P.S: These wave analysis are not simple to comprehend. Please revert back with queries to avoid confusion. Always remember that, your queries/comments will help me to diagnose the situation in a better way and remove any biased view that I might have.

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