Though the main trend is still up, the market is showing some nervousness in the higher band of 5250-5280....Nifty is showing interest to reach beyond 5300 but everytime it does so, there comes a barrier at 5280.....
So far as the mathematical indicators are concerned, I have still not found any weakness in the system...Particularly, the way OBV and Stochs have positioned themselves...Even the way OTM puts have shed premium for the March series as well, is quite astonishing....Premiums have gone down drastically for Feb/March puts till 5000 strike price....Looking at the India VIX, we find that it is trading at all time lows of 21, which suggests that there is no fear or greed in the system for the coming 30 days since VIX takes into account the 2nd month option pricing. The euphoria that prevails in the market when small caps start hitting upper circuits is still not there, even as many smallcaps are hitting uc's every day. The market breadth is very much positive as of now.
Now, I will refer again to my 'Mirror Pattern'. As many have pointed out, the time equality is over which means that the time which Nifty spent from Jan 2008 till Oct 2008 and the recovery period from Mar 2009 till Jan 2010 is over in terms of trading days. But the price has not yet recovered completely. Well, even in 1993, it took some time more to recover completely, though we cannot always refer to the past to predict future....But my sense says, we can still make it to the top by Feb-Mar 2010 as I said earlier.....There is a small resistance around 5300 which we last saw in Feb 2008. Now that is on a weelkly closing basis. The support lies around 5050 region. Now whether it comes down from here or first moves to 5400+ needs to be seen, though I am in favor of the later. I would still carry some long positions with 50% profit bookings at these levels.....Another couple of days might make things things more clear.
As for the rest of the year, I would advise holding on to Telecom, Aviation stocks for much higher profits.......
So far as the mathematical indicators are concerned, I have still not found any weakness in the system...Particularly, the way OBV and Stochs have positioned themselves...Even the way OTM puts have shed premium for the March series as well, is quite astonishing....Premiums have gone down drastically for Feb/March puts till 5000 strike price....Looking at the India VIX, we find that it is trading at all time lows of 21, which suggests that there is no fear or greed in the system for the coming 30 days since VIX takes into account the 2nd month option pricing. The euphoria that prevails in the market when small caps start hitting upper circuits is still not there, even as many smallcaps are hitting uc's every day. The market breadth is very much positive as of now.
Now, I will refer again to my 'Mirror Pattern'. As many have pointed out, the time equality is over which means that the time which Nifty spent from Jan 2008 till Oct 2008 and the recovery period from Mar 2009 till Jan 2010 is over in terms of trading days. But the price has not yet recovered completely. Well, even in 1993, it took some time more to recover completely, though we cannot always refer to the past to predict future....But my sense says, we can still make it to the top by Feb-Mar 2010 as I said earlier.....There is a small resistance around 5300 which we last saw in Feb 2008. Now that is on a weelkly closing basis. The support lies around 5050 region. Now whether it comes down from here or first moves to 5400+ needs to be seen, though I am in favor of the later. I would still carry some long positions with 50% profit bookings at these levels.....Another couple of days might make things things more clear.
As for the rest of the year, I would advise holding on to Telecom, Aviation stocks for much higher profits.......
1 comment:
Hi Sapta,
What next?Any update in current scenario?
Post a Comment