Refer to my last post in the blog, I clearly said that IF Nifty is unable to close above 5018 on Monday, then we will slide from the the current levels only (refer to point no 2.) We closed below that and slid by 200 points in 2 days.
Yesterday, I had updated 4780 as the support in our Orkut Community (but didnot get time to update details here). Screen shot attached and link given.
http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/Orkut.jpg
Yesterday, I had updated 4780 as the support in our Orkut Community (but didnot get time to update details here). Screen shot attached and link given.
http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/Orkut.jpg
Now let me explain why I gave the support level like that. Refer to the chart below.....
http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/NF-1.jpg
We can see the following things....
1. Two supports were seen exactly at 4794 NF. The first support was the diagonal of the wave A-B-C-D-E (brown line) and the second was the trendline joining 1-2-3 peaks (denoted by the deep red line). Here the previous resistances acted as the support.
2. Another support was seen at 4804 which was the 61.8% Fib retracement of the rally from 4571 to 5165.
Thus, we see that 4794 was the precise level and 4780-4820 was considered with the aberations in mind.
Now, lets see where we might go from here.
Again, refer to the above chart.....
1. We have formed a DOJI at the bottom after 8 days of continuous correction from 5165.
2. PCR has gone down below 1 for the first time in last 45 days.
3. Mathematical indicators have turned oversold.
Considering these a bounce is possible (generally observed under such conditions). But till what extent?
For now, there will be 3 resistances at around 4950.
1. Fib 38.2% retracement of the recent fall from 5165 to 4792 comes at 4950.
2. The previous support of B-D extension now acts as stiff resistance at 4950.
3. Also 34EMA comes around 4940-50 zone.
So, a possibilty of a bounceback from these levels to 4950 is observed. Further, the Oct series started on 25th Sep with a range of 4932-5007 and closed the day at 4967. That also creates a possibility of expiring the series flat around 4950 with little negative bias, which thus creates a doji in the entire series. After that we should again continue in the downtrend as mentioned earlier (I will update this again later on.)
P.S.: If NF goes below 4780, the above theory becomes void.
Happy Trading!!!
[We are having our paid services. Visit www.saptarshimandal.com]
1. Two supports were seen exactly at 4794 NF. The first support was the diagonal of the wave A-B-C-D-E (brown line) and the second was the trendline joining 1-2-3 peaks (denoted by the deep red line). Here the previous resistances acted as the support.
2. Another support was seen at 4804 which was the 61.8% Fib retracement of the rally from 4571 to 5165.
Thus, we see that 4794 was the precise level and 4780-4820 was considered with the aberations in mind.
Now, lets see where we might go from here.
Again, refer to the above chart.....
1. We have formed a DOJI at the bottom after 8 days of continuous correction from 5165.
2. PCR has gone down below 1 for the first time in last 45 days.
3. Mathematical indicators have turned oversold.
Considering these a bounce is possible (generally observed under such conditions). But till what extent?
For now, there will be 3 resistances at around 4950.
1. Fib 38.2% retracement of the recent fall from 5165 to 4792 comes at 4950.
2. The previous support of B-D extension now acts as stiff resistance at 4950.
3. Also 34EMA comes around 4940-50 zone.
So, a possibilty of a bounceback from these levels to 4950 is observed. Further, the Oct series started on 25th Sep with a range of 4932-5007 and closed the day at 4967. That also creates a possibility of expiring the series flat around 4950 with little negative bias, which thus creates a doji in the entire series. After that we should again continue in the downtrend as mentioned earlier (I will update this again later on.)
P.S.: If NF goes below 4780, the above theory becomes void.
Happy Trading!!!
[We are having our paid services. Visit www.saptarshimandal.com]
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