I am writing here after a gap of almost 8 days.....The markets didnot stop where I thought it would; instead it kept on inching upwards at a rather fast pace than expected and touched 5000 on the spot and fuures Nifty today.....Technically speaking, my last call was wrong and the call is a dead one as of now.....
But what one might expect now?
But what one might expect now?
Right now, there is a strong feeling among market participants that this market probably cannot fall. There is a also a feeling that once the barrier of 4750 was crossed, the market can move towards 5200 and even above on the back of continuous FII and DII buying....
Now lets first analyze my previous posts.....
In the article published on 4th September, I gave 3 possible outcomes and concluded with a probable top between 4830 and 4850 between 9th and 11th September. We hit that level between the same dates and then carried on from there......I had mentioned that 2 waves were giving downside targets while 1 wave was still showing an upmove. But looking into the Sensex charts, I thought that the bearishness will start around 16270 (Sensex) or 4830-4850 (+ 1-2% whipsaws on the Nifty).....I had also written in one of the previous articles that S&P 500 is very very weak and is only accomodating to help Nifty move towards its target......
Now, S&P500 closed at 1068 yesterday. If it slides below 1063 on closing basis, then its weakness should develop strongly and that effect could percolate down to Indian Markets as well.....Otherwise, Nifty might continue its upward movement till 5150 (though I am not completely confident about this).....I am still confident of the downside targets of 4550 at least (if not 4200 at this moment) but for that 4930 should be broken on closing basis in Nifty Futures. If 4930 is not broken, then one should rather hedge oneself with an alternate Nifty (Nifty with mini Nifty or vice versa).
The above strategy should work under the current circumstances. May be some specific long positions in individual scripts will work excellently. Many scripts are moving 20% in a day these days....
Lets see for a few more days and I will update here the moment I need to change my views....
[We have free sms service also. Type "JOIN saptarshimandal" and send it to 567678. Our last call on KFA was given 9 days back at 47 and today it was up by 16%.]
Now lets first analyze my previous posts.....
In the article published on 4th September, I gave 3 possible outcomes and concluded with a probable top between 4830 and 4850 between 9th and 11th September. We hit that level between the same dates and then carried on from there......I had mentioned that 2 waves were giving downside targets while 1 wave was still showing an upmove. But looking into the Sensex charts, I thought that the bearishness will start around 16270 (Sensex) or 4830-4850 (+ 1-2% whipsaws on the Nifty).....I had also written in one of the previous articles that S&P 500 is very very weak and is only accomodating to help Nifty move towards its target......
Now, S&P500 closed at 1068 yesterday. If it slides below 1063 on closing basis, then its weakness should develop strongly and that effect could percolate down to Indian Markets as well.....Otherwise, Nifty might continue its upward movement till 5150 (though I am not completely confident about this).....I am still confident of the downside targets of 4550 at least (if not 4200 at this moment) but for that 4930 should be broken on closing basis in Nifty Futures. If 4930 is not broken, then one should rather hedge oneself with an alternate Nifty (Nifty with mini Nifty or vice versa).
The above strategy should work under the current circumstances. May be some specific long positions in individual scripts will work excellently. Many scripts are moving 20% in a day these days....
Lets see for a few more days and I will update here the moment I need to change my views....
[We have free sms service also. Type "JOIN saptarshimandal" and send it to 567678. Our last call on KFA was given 9 days back at 47 and today it was up by 16%.]
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