Over the last 4 days, Nifty continuosly slid down and ended in the red. Under the circumstances, some new waves got created and they got overlapped under several other progressing waves. As a result, my earlier target of 4950 on 7th September might get deviated. I have tried to find out all those combinations and come up with my conclusion.....
The following possibilities cropped up on the Nifty 1st month futures (NF)....
1. NF bounces from current levels of 4590 to 4708 and then falls to 4150 following the 5th wave to the 6th extended point around 22nd September....
2. NF moves towards 4820 to 4850 between 9th and 11th September and then falls towards 4550 zone....
3. NF continues its journey towards 4950 and 5050+ before falling towards 4275 zone.....
Now coming to Sensex charts, 2 progressing waves show a target of 16270 simultaneously on 9th Septemeber and then the 5th bearish wave or 6th extended point meets at 14200 or below....Even the Sensex weekly charts confirm the same.....
Now tracking globally,
S&P500 which is already having a weak bearish wave in the weekly charts, more or less completed a very short wave correction (though missed by 5 points) and also took support at the 34 day EMA. As a result, a bounce from these levels is quite expected and it also closed above the psycological 1000 mark yesterday night, ending a 4-day continuous fall in the same index....
Even Shanghai has corrected a lot and a good bounce is overdue...
Some other points to be noted in our markets......
a. Sep NF has again moved into a 5 point discount. Under these circumstances, generally smart money buys in the futures market at discounted price and keeps on selling in the cash market to mislead retailers...This is proven by 4 days of continuous -ve FII data in the cash segment..
b. NF very near to the ascending trendline of March till now and the critical support is now at 4550. This level is also the 34 EMA level....Even the 38.2% Fib retracement of the last rally (from 4341 to 4756) is done for now...
c. Also remember that, we topped on last Friday. And today is the 5th day following that, which means that people who carried leveraged positions with their brokers on a T+5 rule, had to book losses yesterday and get out of the market....
Conclusion:
Considering the above points and the global situation, I do not see any further fall in NF. Instead, it should bounce from around this zone, keeping 4550 as the final stop for now....
Combining points a,b,c with the possibilities mentioned in 1,2,3 above and the Sensex, I strongly feel that we are following the Sensex path mentioned above and that translates to NF moving 4830 and 4850 between 9th and 11th September from hereon before we fall down. This possibility covers 2 wave targets each for Sensex and NF on the daily charts and also confirms the NF and Sensex weekly charts.....Also the -ve divergences are shown in MACD, On Balance Volume in the weekly charts but the daily charts in almost near the over sold territory....
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The following possibilities cropped up on the Nifty 1st month futures (NF)....
1. NF bounces from current levels of 4590 to 4708 and then falls to 4150 following the 5th wave to the 6th extended point around 22nd September....
2. NF moves towards 4820 to 4850 between 9th and 11th September and then falls towards 4550 zone....
3. NF continues its journey towards 4950 and 5050+ before falling towards 4275 zone.....
Now coming to Sensex charts, 2 progressing waves show a target of 16270 simultaneously on 9th Septemeber and then the 5th bearish wave or 6th extended point meets at 14200 or below....Even the Sensex weekly charts confirm the same.....
Now tracking globally,
S&P500 which is already having a weak bearish wave in the weekly charts, more or less completed a very short wave correction (though missed by 5 points) and also took support at the 34 day EMA. As a result, a bounce from these levels is quite expected and it also closed above the psycological 1000 mark yesterday night, ending a 4-day continuous fall in the same index....
Even Shanghai has corrected a lot and a good bounce is overdue...
Some other points to be noted in our markets......
a. Sep NF has again moved into a 5 point discount. Under these circumstances, generally smart money buys in the futures market at discounted price and keeps on selling in the cash market to mislead retailers...This is proven by 4 days of continuous -ve FII data in the cash segment..
b. NF very near to the ascending trendline of March till now and the critical support is now at 4550. This level is also the 34 EMA level....Even the 38.2% Fib retracement of the last rally (from 4341 to 4756) is done for now...
c. Also remember that, we topped on last Friday. And today is the 5th day following that, which means that people who carried leveraged positions with their brokers on a T+5 rule, had to book losses yesterday and get out of the market....
Conclusion:
Considering the above points and the global situation, I do not see any further fall in NF. Instead, it should bounce from around this zone, keeping 4550 as the final stop for now....
Combining points a,b,c with the possibilities mentioned in 1,2,3 above and the Sensex, I strongly feel that we are following the Sensex path mentioned above and that translates to NF moving 4830 and 4850 between 9th and 11th September from hereon before we fall down. This possibility covers 2 wave targets each for Sensex and NF on the daily charts and also confirms the NF and Sensex weekly charts.....Also the -ve divergences are shown in MACD, On Balance Volume in the weekly charts but the daily charts in almost near the over sold territory....
[For more guidance, type "JOIN saptarshimandal" and sms it to 567678 for FREE real time services]
1 comment:
Dada thnx for the updates, and u rock and i love your TA and calls.... i have made lots of profits with the help of your calls. i am really waiting for paid services and give us some gud intra-day stock and short term calls. thanx bharat
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