As suggested, the markets went on moving from strength to strength as we touched intraday highs of 4703 on the current month Nifty Futures....Ironically, when everything was bad to worse at 4330 with Finance Minister coming live on TV to say that drought conditions are severe, the markets made a 'U' turn northwards. We bought at around those levels and suddenly everything seems so rosy in the general economy of the country. Suddenly the monsoon arrives in full throttle and FM comes again to say that rainfall has been quite good in the last few days. Even the US markets having a very weak chart with a typical bearish wave, has shown good resistance to the bearish effect in order to accomodate the bullish upmove of Indian Markets....
What I mean to say is that "Never go by what you can see or hear. There's much more to it than normal chart reading or fundamental thories. Fundamentals change overnight because those are in the hands of the promoters. They know how to run the business. You or I dont know. Government knows how to run the country's economy. You or I do not know. Never be a chart reader. Every Tom, Dick and Harry knows how to read Fibonacci or Gann or draw trendlines. I define prices as "the summation of the emotional behaviour of 'n' number of traders". And these emotional balances which dictates price movements of scripts cause a wave to occur in the charts. Waves cannot be read. It needs to be felt. If you can feel waves, then you will get the actual impulse of the markets. Fundamentals or economic conditions are always reflected in price movements. So even if you cannot feel the wave, at least try to read what your screen tells you and never get carried away by the so-called-news. Remember, news are for the TV channels to make money.....not for you and me.....
Now, lets go back to charts. I still dont find any deviations from what I had written before. So I will still stick to my levels of 4950 on 7th September, 2009. But tomorrow is the expiry. So you can always expect some intermediate knee jerk reactions which is typical of expiry day. Last expiry closed at 4571. So, lets consider it a psychological support for now. This expiry should close above that.
My expectations were 4630 (+/-). If 4570 comes, that gives a 23.6 % retracement of the current rally and paves the way for further upmove from Friday. But not necessarily that it will come. In any case, a dip is a clear BUY....
Enjoy the August expiry.....
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