Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Uncoding the complex wave......

Its been a few turbulent days in Indian Stock Market. People who got bullish at 4650+ region have again been trapped like anything.....People who considered themselves smart after their lesson last year have again been proved that they are not.....95% stayed away from the market because of election and missed the rally.....Again, thinking themselves matured entered the market at 4650+ assuming that markets will be stable because of forthcoming budget, only to proven that they are simple retailers after all......

Menawhile my target of 4245 is completely met with.....Yes I am a bit confused currently cause the current wave in probably in the stage 3 zone....Much depends on whether it completes the 3rd leg here and moves on the 4th leg or continues with the 3rd leg downside.....[Please note that the previous wave which gave the downside target of 4245 is completed].....

I have made an analysis on the GAP theory as well.....It shows that almost 76% weightage on the Nifty have completed its GAP, yet leaving around 9% on the index uncovered....This leads to a conclusion that probably Nifty will never complete the GAP (at least in the current cycle) leaving everyone puzzled....There is a major reversal zone around 4210 to 4263 region on the 1st month futures. Though this can be broken on intraday basis causing temporary panic and unwinding of any longs, yet an immediate bounce till 4450-4500 is very much possible with an June expiry around 4350 levels.....If this happens, then we will again fall from around 4500 to 3950-4000 before budget in all probability, thus completing the full wave cycle and commence on the upward journey thereon.....

Please note the levels that I have written above and lets reconcile it after a few days.....

Wishing all very Exciting Trading Moments....

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Investing in stock markets carries inherent risks. Readers are requested to consult their financial adviser for trading / investing. The views expressed here are solely that of the author and he wont be responsible for any gains or loss arising to the readers for trading based on the expressed ideas.