Saturday, May 23, 2009

Popular beliefs and my contrarion theory

Whats the popular belief in Stock Markets?

Answer is "Sell in May and go away"......

True that this hypothesis holds correct many times.....But then one has to remember that this is a hypothesis only. It actually failed in more occassions than it held true.....

Does one remember the panic of May 1993.....It was May and markets gave continuous 9 higher monthly closing after that (leave aside one single negative closing in Oct).... Check this...

http://i441.photobucket.com/albums/qq134/Saptarshi_m/SensexMay1993.jpg

Is their any thumb rule that markets wont move up after that? The answer is a BIG NO......Never judge the future of market movements by seeing the past only....Past consists of many things......Some good news and some bad news......Always remember that PRICE IS THE BIGGEST INDICATOR.......See where its moving.....

I have shown the above example of May 1993 only to prove that Markets can go anywhere....Never trade with a pre-conceived notion....Thats dangerous......

Remember the golden words of Warren Buffett...
Quote
“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.”
Unquote


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Disclaimer:

Investing in stock markets carries inherent risks. Readers are requested to consult their financial adviser for trading / investing. The views expressed here are solely that of the author and he wont be responsible for any gains or loss arising to the readers for trading based on the expressed ideas.