The basic trend is still up. And I am still convinced that the structure has shifted from bear to bull market. But then one has to remember that steady upmove of 50% in the index is definitely a rare case. Nifty and Sensex have moved by more than 50% from the Oct 2008 lows.
Today the India VIX has hit 61.2 which is more than 120% up from March lows of 28. This defintely indicates a high level of fear factor or uncertainty within the minds of the investors. And why not? After all, the mega event (election results) are just round the corner.
One should also remember that we have left behind many a GAPS in the index during this upmove, which obviously will not be filled up. But, the last one might possibly be closed if Nifty is unable to move above 3600 immediately. In that case 3470 is a likely target with 3380 also a possibility. Above 3600, the equation changes.
Next, Reliance and a few large caps look damn tired and thats a slight cause of worry. My personal feeling is one should not be entering these counters at this moment. Rather wait for 7-10 days and buy at any level (dip or whatever), one week after the new govt forms.
Today the India VIX has hit 61.2 which is more than 120% up from March lows of 28. This defintely indicates a high level of fear factor or uncertainty within the minds of the investors. And why not? After all, the mega event (election results) are just round the corner.
One should also remember that we have left behind many a GAPS in the index during this upmove, which obviously will not be filled up. But, the last one might possibly be closed if Nifty is unable to move above 3600 immediately. In that case 3470 is a likely target with 3380 also a possibility. Above 3600, the equation changes.
Next, Reliance and a few large caps look damn tired and thats a slight cause of worry. My personal feeling is one should not be entering these counters at this moment. Rather wait for 7-10 days and buy at any level (dip or whatever), one week after the new govt forms.
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