I have been quite confused over the possible movements of Nifty for the past few days.....Infact I am still bit confused......Last time, I wrote about two possible scenarios : New lows or end of bear market........
Frankly speaking, it sounds quite ridiculous to speak about the end of bear market......a bear market of ferocious nature in just about 15 months. Most of the people (including the DII's) have missed the rally. And they will all want Nifty to fall down to get into it. This view is supported by the FII/DII data (see www.bseindia.com)... And this very fact suggests that we might have probably seen the last of bear market in Feb 2009. The most feared bear market might just get over so fast and we are probably all set to see new bull rally very soon.
Next, a very surprising data is coming from VIX. We know that volatility increases with falling prices indiacating fear and decreases with rising prices showing confidence. But over the last 2 months, just the reverse happened. I dont know its actual meaning, but yes VIX rose from 28 to 58 while Nifty rose from 2750 to 3450....Only the last 2 days showed VIX back to 47 .....a drop of 10 points in 2 days......I have never seen the origin of a bull market...Last time it happened in 2003 when I was in my 3rd year of engineering. I didnot know what stock market is all about at that time. This peculiar nature of VIX movement have actually put me in a fix and when I combine it with my perception as described in the previous paragraph, it only makes me belief that probably the worst bear market since 1929 is abruptly over. May the GOD have the same view in mind !!!
I have seen people fighting over the 200DMA and several other indicators in search of bull or bear market.....Many people on the street are saying 'if Nifty is above such and such level, bull market will start' and et all......My only question to them is "Which one comes first....Prices or mathematical levels"??? Again, why do people always relate the past to find a future. The great Warren Buffet says "If history can predict future, then the librarians would have been the richest person on earth". Yes, its true that history is the only raw material in stock market but then "Is it only prices and patterns that one needs to look into? Should we not look into it on a macro level? Lets start combining technicals with so many other parameters which are not there is charts......Lets build a macro pattern."
I had suggested to clean one's demat around 23rd to 27th of April and sit on cash. I was confused and I am still confused a bit. But since we held on to 3350-3370 zone on last Friday, I have started to think of a new bull regime. Prices can fall from here as risk is still on a very high level. But probably we should start thinking of fresh buying on any dips. The patterns are suggesting that of April-May 2003.
I am constantly trying to find better clues and analogies and will publish them from time to time......Enjoy your trades without any fixations in mind.......If one has any doubt, please fell free to call me on 9433071980 or 9804871347 or 033-30274437 (O)......
Frankly speaking, it sounds quite ridiculous to speak about the end of bear market......a bear market of ferocious nature in just about 15 months. Most of the people (including the DII's) have missed the rally. And they will all want Nifty to fall down to get into it. This view is supported by the FII/DII data (see www.bseindia.com)... And this very fact suggests that we might have probably seen the last of bear market in Feb 2009. The most feared bear market might just get over so fast and we are probably all set to see new bull rally very soon.
Next, a very surprising data is coming from VIX. We know that volatility increases with falling prices indiacating fear and decreases with rising prices showing confidence. But over the last 2 months, just the reverse happened. I dont know its actual meaning, but yes VIX rose from 28 to 58 while Nifty rose from 2750 to 3450....Only the last 2 days showed VIX back to 47 .....a drop of 10 points in 2 days......I have never seen the origin of a bull market...Last time it happened in 2003 when I was in my 3rd year of engineering. I didnot know what stock market is all about at that time. This peculiar nature of VIX movement have actually put me in a fix and when I combine it with my perception as described in the previous paragraph, it only makes me belief that probably the worst bear market since 1929 is abruptly over. May the GOD have the same view in mind !!!
I have seen people fighting over the 200DMA and several other indicators in search of bull or bear market.....Many people on the street are saying 'if Nifty is above such and such level, bull market will start' and et all......My only question to them is "Which one comes first....Prices or mathematical levels"??? Again, why do people always relate the past to find a future. The great Warren Buffet says "If history can predict future, then the librarians would have been the richest person on earth". Yes, its true that history is the only raw material in stock market but then "Is it only prices and patterns that one needs to look into? Should we not look into it on a macro level? Lets start combining technicals with so many other parameters which are not there is charts......Lets build a macro pattern."
I had suggested to clean one's demat around 23rd to 27th of April and sit on cash. I was confused and I am still confused a bit. But since we held on to 3350-3370 zone on last Friday, I have started to think of a new bull regime. Prices can fall from here as risk is still on a very high level. But probably we should start thinking of fresh buying on any dips. The patterns are suggesting that of April-May 2003.
I am constantly trying to find better clues and analogies and will publish them from time to time......Enjoy your trades without any fixations in mind.......If one has any doubt, please fell free to call me on 9433071980 or 9804871347 or 033-30274437 (O)......
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