Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Market is supreme

As said, its proved once again. All major indiactors kept on showing negative bias. All traders carried their short positions with a wish to become rich by taking a sure shot position. But, market had something different story to unleash. He decided to take the shorters for a ride, thus moving on with its northward journey. Shorters were trapped from 2650 levels and now Nifty is at 2950 levels. The futures discount, which was at 30 points some 3 days back, slowly trimmed to just 4 points. Many were forced to cover their shorts and started writing 2800 puts. The PCR open interest increased heavily to 1.4 levels. Infact, I was also caught on the wrong foot, but then decided to buy Nifty and short mini Nifty at every rise. This startegy worked very well so far. Maybe I will also have to cover the positional mini shorts after sometime but at least carried them till now. Writing options may not be a good startegy at this time, since market will break out in any direction, at least seems so and people caught in the wrong option writing might be crucified. At least, my feeling is that market will eventually move out of the range since the bandwidth has narrowed to almost 0.7 showing very low volatility. Under the circumstances, a widening of the band is inevitable and a +/- 2 standard deviations should be attained very soon. One thing for sure, market is not there to give money to all. So market cannot move in the direction which almost everybody is sure of. Market is Supreme....Market is GOD......

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Disclaimer:

Investing in stock markets carries inherent risks. Readers are requested to consult their financial adviser for trading / investing. The views expressed here are solely that of the author and he wont be responsible for any gains or loss arising to the readers for trading based on the expressed ideas.