Today, GDP numbers came in way below than what ministers were affirming. Its a shocking yet quite natural value at 5.3% for Oct-Dec 2008. Now, going by the progress in the current quarter and what analysts are making in consultation with the industry heads, it seems that we are past the era of 7% plus GDP numbers. Even if the ministers are in a complete denial of the fact that global recession is taking its toll on India, we are most likely to end the year 2008-09 in a range of 4.5-5% GDP growth. Most shocking was the agriculture numbers which came in at -2% for the quarter. This means that the problem has not only spread to the manufacturing companies, but it has also impacted the basic component of Indian growth story.
But our markets had its own way of dealing with it. It fell after the news only to recover in the last half hour. I had been interacting with several HNI's and a few company CEO's these days. Today, one of them told me that so long most of us are in a state of sheer pessimism, this market won't fall. And thats very much true. Operators are not here to pay everybody. And when all the indicators will start showing a buy signal; which obviously will come only after a certain definite upmove, these smart people will cash in and the fall will come. And I guess thats what is happening in our markets these days......
But our markets had its own way of dealing with it. It fell after the news only to recover in the last half hour. I had been interacting with several HNI's and a few company CEO's these days. Today, one of them told me that so long most of us are in a state of sheer pessimism, this market won't fall. And thats very much true. Operators are not here to pay everybody. And when all the indicators will start showing a buy signal; which obviously will come only after a certain definite upmove, these smart people will cash in and the fall will come. And I guess thats what is happening in our markets these days......
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