The dec series started with a lot of enthusiam.......Nifty slowly inched towards highers highs. But there was always a sense of insecurity that stopped traders from going long. Investors did not want to come out in the middle with fresh allocations. The volatility cooled down substantially from 85 to sub 40 in India VIX.....At every rise, people stuck at higher levels wanted to sell ot traders tried to go short, but Nifty went on inching upwards.....We are still in a bear zone. The major trend is still down but what is striking is that an immediate uptrend has emerged....This simple fact, though, has been denied by many.....Probably, its the same human psychology to go against the trend and establish himself superior.....When the markets were going down in Sep-Oct, these same people tried to find a bottom amidst the downtrend.....
One thing which is most striking is that VIX has come down from very high levels.....This typically meant that prices which were quoting at 2/3 standard deviations are now at their mean values......Generally, the volatility increases when the pricces tend to fall creating a sense of insecurity among traders. When markets climb higher but at slow and steady pace, volatilty tends to cool off. Under these circumstances, markets generally do not show wild swings in either directions. The accumulations have been very high at low levels in almost all stocks. Though many are trying to find a top formation in this so-called bear market rally, my feeling is that the markets will surprise many on its movement upwards......I am not saying that bulls are back. But amidst this, the uptrend is positive and we are in a position to see much higher levels than anticipated on the streets. Probably this is how markets tend to behave. We, as traders, make one simple or silly mistake.... We, as advisors, always try to defeat other theories and prove ourselves right. We only try to gauge the markets with sheer technicals. Technicals are vital but what we forget is the trading psychology behind it. I keep on advising people and my clients to have that sense of confidence when stepping into the markets. This market is GOD. We can only try to move ourselves in the direction as determined by HIM.
The last 2 days saw a bit of correction in Nifty. It tried to cross 3100 mark thrice but failed to do so. Then came the expiry and the profit booking started to take place. Currently, Nifty has a strong support trendline at 2850-70 levels. Since many retailers/ small traders are still trying to find short trades, my feeling is that we will bounce sharply from 2850-2920 zone and pierce the previous resistance at 3100 strongly and move ahead. Since VIX has come down very sharply, the panic will not be there right now. But, if 2850 is broken on the downside, then volatility should increase and markets might go downwards. Somehow, I belong to the group of contrarion traders. So amidst the general belief that markets will go down, I strongly feel a continuation of the uptrend. I dont know where it will go now. Our duty is not to visualize days ahead, but our group will continue to trade with positive bias for the time being......
[Join us at PS Financial Services. Contact 9433071980 or 9314611288. Do write us at psfinancials@yahoo.in for offer details. sms PS_Financials and send it to 567678.
For new trading/demat accounts, please contact us with your details. We also offer PMS services.]
One thing which is most striking is that VIX has come down from very high levels.....This typically meant that prices which were quoting at 2/3 standard deviations are now at their mean values......Generally, the volatility increases when the pricces tend to fall creating a sense of insecurity among traders. When markets climb higher but at slow and steady pace, volatilty tends to cool off. Under these circumstances, markets generally do not show wild swings in either directions. The accumulations have been very high at low levels in almost all stocks. Though many are trying to find a top formation in this so-called bear market rally, my feeling is that the markets will surprise many on its movement upwards......I am not saying that bulls are back. But amidst this, the uptrend is positive and we are in a position to see much higher levels than anticipated on the streets. Probably this is how markets tend to behave. We, as traders, make one simple or silly mistake.... We, as advisors, always try to defeat other theories and prove ourselves right. We only try to gauge the markets with sheer technicals. Technicals are vital but what we forget is the trading psychology behind it. I keep on advising people and my clients to have that sense of confidence when stepping into the markets. This market is GOD. We can only try to move ourselves in the direction as determined by HIM.
The last 2 days saw a bit of correction in Nifty. It tried to cross 3100 mark thrice but failed to do so. Then came the expiry and the profit booking started to take place. Currently, Nifty has a strong support trendline at 2850-70 levels. Since many retailers/ small traders are still trying to find short trades, my feeling is that we will bounce sharply from 2850-2920 zone and pierce the previous resistance at 3100 strongly and move ahead. Since VIX has come down very sharply, the panic will not be there right now. But, if 2850 is broken on the downside, then volatility should increase and markets might go downwards. Somehow, I belong to the group of contrarion traders. So amidst the general belief that markets will go down, I strongly feel a continuation of the uptrend. I dont know where it will go now. Our duty is not to visualize days ahead, but our group will continue to trade with positive bias for the time being......
[Join us at PS Financial Services. Contact 9433071980 or 9314611288. Do write us at psfinancials@yahoo.in for offer details. sms PS_Financials and send it to 567678.
For new trading/demat accounts, please contact us with your details. We also offer PMS services.]
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