Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Search for Bottom

The biggest question probably in mind of thousands of traders and investors.....Since 3800 we were talking of bottom being formed and then came the big collapse and we are at 3200.....No one is still sure whether this makes a bottom for Indian Markets.......As I said earlier, we are in for a really painful time wise correction.......Till now we ahve retraced by almost 55% from the Jan highs....We can make newer lows or we can consolidate around this zone......Everything is possible....So really we should not debate over this issue but keep on trading in this zone....Trading opportunities are in plenty.....

The toughest and most painful part will be to see an overall industrial slowdown.....If that happens and which will probably happen, then we are going to see the actual pain....Jobs will get cut across industries....Many IT cos and recently airlines have done that in India.....Globally, vacancies will come down and that might adversely impact many fresh graduates......We had seen that in 2000-02....But that was mainly in the IT sector.....This time the crisis is vastly huge.....Most of us could not foresee this because we came out of a 5 year bull market and 90% of the investors in India were born at this time......Until 80% of those investors get wiped out from the system (which is very pathetic to imagine), we are not going to get out of the crisis.....The last bull market as I previously said was driven by excessive in-hand cash from people across the globe......It was not a domestic demand driven growth.....But, my belief is that, this crisis will lead to even higher demand creation in India and we will see the next bull run beacuse of our internal strength......We have to have patience and I always believe Mr.Rakesh Jhunjhunwala......We will see an even stronger bull market but that will test our patience....

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Investing in stock markets carries inherent risks. Readers are requested to consult their financial adviser for trading / investing. The views expressed here are solely that of the author and he wont be responsible for any gains or loss arising to the readers for trading based on the expressed ideas.