Saturday, October 4, 2008

Fed Bailout - A financial boon or bane?

At last the US goverment passed the 700 billion dollar bailout package......With the nod of Democrats and Republics, Mr.Bush signed the historic package in the White House.....But does it mean that its the end of financial turmoil? I hope not....The problem is sub prime lending is like cancer desease.....You try to cure one part and by the time you do that, it already spreads to other part of your body.....The sub prime problem has already spread to European and some Asian countries as well......Many banks have collapsed, many got new lifeline......Maybe some more will collapse......But, yes, with this package probably the rate of collapse will come down.....Many banks which, otherwise, could not think of servicing customers, will now have that extra liquidity to run the business at present.....But the biggest task is how they and Fed and US Govt lead from the front and bring the business into an healthy shape having adequate cash reserve and a healthy working capital.......

Implications in the stock market: Will this bring an end to the present global bear phase? Tough to say.....Probably none has the answer......But to my feeling, since the immediate liquidity problem has been dealt with, the FII's wont have to sell the assets across all markets.....This means that lack of broad based institutional selling might bring an end to the free fall.....Ofcourse, the fall can still be there but at a slower pace......On the contrary, the street talk is very much negative.....Many have started to lose hope, many lost hope.....But still many dream.....At this juncture, DII's not having any bad exposures might like to jump in and earn some short term money.......All asian markets are oversold......India is almost near to its 200 week moving average and this is also the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level......Plus, many major stocks like RIL are on its long term supports.......My feeling is that Dow will still continue to drag downwards and Asia stocks might make a good short term rally, which is not much anticipated now.......And if equities move up, so will crude and to lesser extent gold......







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Investing in stock markets carries inherent risks. Readers are requested to consult their financial adviser for trading / investing. The views expressed here are solely that of the author and he wont be responsible for any gains or loss arising to the readers for trading based on the expressed ideas.